• Virtual Concurrent & Multi-lifecycle Engineering Over the 3D Internet
• U.S. Small Business eDevelopment and eCommerce Drivers and Collaboration Strategies
• Time and stress management...
• The Top Ten Engineering Marvels (Compiled by the National Academy of Engineering, Washington DC, USA)
• Why Do Companies Relocate?
• Comments on the Knowledge-driven Economy by the IEE President, Dr. John Taylor...
• A Crystal Ball for 1999/2000 Finances...
• The Internet Revolution...
• Globalization: the "Drivers of Change"
• The Software Industry in 1999...
• Y2K, or the Year 2000 challenge (Tips and Ideas)...
• Marketing Tips for Trade Shows...
• More to come...

by

Paul G Ranky, PhD, Professor, Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, A Public Research University in NJ, USA.

The 21st Century undoubtedly is the 'knowledge driven century', meaning that information that can be turned into value adding knowledge will represent more power than ever before. This is because the Internet helps to reduce waste, as well as acts as a systems integration and collaborator enabler for creating new ideas that can be turned into product and then sold to a global economy quicker and at a lower cost than ever before.

The advanced design and manufacturing/ assembly industry is increasingly operating on a globally integrated, Internet-based collaborative model of design, production and support in which OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) assemble products out of components and objects (both hardware and software) by a network of distributed suppliers.

This distributed client-server model is enabled by the Internet, company intranets and consortium based extranets. Reaching even further, in a modern factory every 'important' machine is electronically represented by a webpage, enabling operators and managers to review processes, state, quality and others over intranets anytime, anywhere.

In this new economy, leading companies are discovering that besides minimizing design and manufacturing costs and maximizing quality, they can achieve competitive advantage by introducing new, innovative products that satisfy individual consumers on a global basis. This is possible because of the highly integrated collaborative opportunities of product and process design, information technology and management. Gains of such 'hot new products' can not only increase the company's market share but it can create an entirely new market category (e.g. the Sony Walkman, Apple's Firewire interfacing standard and others), in which the company is the leader, therefore enjoys the efficiency gains by orders of magnitude.

Internet-based, or Internet-enabled, collaborative manufacturing fosters innovation in integrated design and lean/ flexible manufacturing. This is because coupled with enterprise management systems it can contribute to further cost reductions and sustainable growth. Furthermore, Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) activities and software systems, in integration with Enterprise Resource Planning and Management (ERP&ERM) with Supply Chain Management (SCM) coupled with Customer Relationship Management (CRM) represent a very powerful methods base. These systems can be used on a real-time basis to fine tune a business, continuously learn, innovate and satisfy customer needs, therefore sustain growth and make profit on a global basis.

The primary delivery mechanism for the above outlined system is Internet e-business. At the beginning, the key value of e-business is cost savings, customer satisfaction and revenue growth. As soon as the factory, or organization understands the benefits of web-enabled enterprise processes that share resources, applications and data, the opportunities for further waste reductions and growth are even more dramatic. This is the stage when the e-business gradually becomes a network of connected lean and flexible e-manufacturing businesses.

There are several major success cases in which US manufacturers have found Internet-based manufacturing to be beneficial. As an excellent example consider the National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative's (NEMI) Plug and Play Factory Project. This consortium addressed the issues of how to quickly integrate new pieces of electronics assembly equipment into a shop floor line management system and how to manage the vast amounts of data available in today's electronics manufacturing environment over the Internet, using XML messaging.

At GenRad Inc. in Massachusetts, and partner companies, the necessary technical infrastructure (led by Allan Fraser) was designed, developed, and demonstrated over a two-year period. New standards activities for electronics manufacturing were initiated where existing standards were either non-existent or insufficient to achieve the project goals. The goals of the project were to reduce the amount of time and cost that is takes to integrate a new piece of electronics assembly equipment into a shop floor environment and start collecting data and controlling that equipment (often several thousand miles away over the Internet).

It is estimated today that the integration cost of a typical factory information system is up to four times the cost of purchasing that system in the first place. By demonstrating an order of magnitude reduction in the amount of time and cost of implementing a new factory information system based on the Internet client-server model and XML-based messaging, the project achieved it's goal of drastically reducing cost and improving quality.

To summarize, the key is that by understanding market drivers based on mutually beneficial collaborative problem solving processes enables companies to move beyond traditionally narrow design, manufacturing and trading mechanisms to new and different ways of solving challenges and capturing new markets. The challenges are enormous because most of the old models are changing at a rapid pace and quite frankly nobody truly understands the new economy... Some of the most important tasks facing today's able engineers, managers, researchers and IT professionals include the

• creation of secure Internet-based financial transaction,
• collaborative design and manufacturing,
• supply chain and procurement system integration and
• environmentally friendly sustainable growth models.

Those companies and individuals that will be able to understand and capture the essence of this new 'knowledge driven' Internet economy in which this much broader and more integrated manufacturing model coupled with sound education, and quality content (versus hype) are major wealth creators, will be tomorrow's e-business leaders.

In a recent servey of the U.S. economy by The Network of City Business Journals (also published by Business News, January 9, 2001), based on the feedback of 700 American Small Businesses the following interesting, strategically important facts were published. (A summary with additional comments by the Editor of ADAM with IT).

One of the fundamental drivers of the U.S. economy is the fact that U.S. Governments support small business because they recognise the enormous innovative energy that resides in small family business (1 to 99 employees per business typically). In practice, this means tax benefits, simplified company setup and taxation procedures, significantly lower accounting expenses than for example in Europe, major government grant calls and opportunities, venture capital and a major emphasis on self development, eLearning and other Continuing Professional Development opportunities and tax benefits.

Furthermore small business developments are enjoying an excellent infratstucture (Internet communications, transportation, advanced design and manufacturing services, B2B and D2D, meaning business to business and developer to developer networks, and others). Overall, the positive attitude towards helping small businessess, often based on the founder's great idea, is to help them to grow into large well known companies, such as IBM, Apple, Intel, Ford and others.

This enthusiasm towards small businesses in the US is well reflected by the fact that whilst only about 6 to 8 percent of European graduate engineering students think of setting up their small businesses, in the US this figure is above 70 percent (Ref. IEE, UK, December 2000).

There are some other interesting facts too that illustrate that an entire nation's future and prosperity can be altered by believing and strongly supporting the concept that education is a well placed investment, versus cost. (In this sense U.S. Universities and colleges are part of a supply chain management system that prepares the workforce for our 'knowledge driven' economy).

Let me share with you some interesting facts:

• There are 7.4 million small businesses in the U.S. (meaning 1 to 99 employees per firm) in January 2001 (up 28 percent since 1995)
• The average number of employees per firm is 6.1 (down 27 percent since 1995)
• The average sales that an employee produces in these small businesses is $279K, up 36 percent in the last 5 years
• The service and retail sector, including Information technology leads the way with:
  • Retail trade 27 percent,
  • Business and Professional Services, including Health Care 17 percent,
  • Manufacturing 10 percent and others.
• Approximately 92 percent of small businesses have experienced growth in the past 3 years with 52 percent growing at a rate of 10 percent or better.
• 70 percent drive their revenue from local markets, 22 precent from U.S. national markets, and 8 percent from international markets. (These numbers are likely to shift towards a higher increase in national and international sales based on Internet e-commerce opportunities. As an example, during the holidays in December 2000 U.S. e-commerce versus traditional face-to-face sales went up by over 40 percent in comparison to 1999).

Information about the profile of the average U.S. Small business is very interesting too. This is what this survey has found:

• Average annual sales $1.7 million
• Average years of operation 17.6 years
• Average age of top executive 49.3 years
• Average annual household income $222,6K
• 40 percent of U.S. small businesses are owned by women, and 9 percent by minorities
• 26 Percent are home based
• 74 percent are company founders
• 42 percent are college graduates

With specific interest towards the effect of the Internet on small businesses the following was found:

• Small business Internet usage doubled in 2000 (from 39 percent to 82)
• About 35 percent of small businesses have web-sites (up 15 percent from last year, likely to grow even faster this year)
• Broadband access (DSL, ISDN, T1 and T3) has nearly doubled in one year. The cost of broadband access has been halfed during 2000.

How do small businesses live up to the 'caffeteria packages' that large international companies can offer?

• Over 60 percent offer health insurance, and prescription medicine plan (34 percent)
• Retirement/ pension plan by 27 percent
• Dental insurance by 15 percent
• Vision coverage by 9 percent
• Share options by 6 percent and
• others.

What are the top small business concerns?

• Workforce issues (34 percent). (The U.S. economy is still short of highly skilled workforce by about 300,000!)
• Cost related issues (17 percent)
• Sales generation (16 percent)
• Dealing with competition (16 percent)
• Cash flow and payment collection (11 percent)
• Government related problems (9 percent)
• Interest rates and economy (6 percent) and
• Keeping up with technology changes (5 percent).

And now an interesting case, illustrating how we are all trying to learn and develop eCommerce and eDevelopment strategies and practices in our 'knowledge driven information age'. As this amazon.com example shows, the road is not as easy as it sounds:

Amazon.com's Accidental Bargains (source: David M. Ewalt, Informationweek, USA). Shoppers visiting Amazon.com Inc.'s electronics store Monday night found major bargains on computer memory when an apparent glitch caused a handful of products to be sold for a fraction of their retail prices. A Viking 256-Mbyte memory board retailing for $9.99 reached No. 1 in Amazon's sales rankings before the price was corrected Tuesday morning to $329.99, and a 1-Gbyte board sold for $10.77 before being corrected to $999.99.

The cause of the mistake, how many orders were taken, and how the company will respond aren't known at this point. Amazon declined to discuss the situation, saying it was under investigation. Its pricing policy states that if an item is incorrectly priced, the company can cancel the sale, but as of 3 p.m. EST Tuesday, the orders had not been canceled, and customers who bought the components still showed the discounted price in their accounts' order status.

Jason Williams, a network administration student who describes himself as an "avid Internet deal hunter," became aware of the low prices through a forum on another Web site. He figured it was a mistake, but placed two orders anyway, buying $3,000 worth of RAM for about $80. He doesn't expect the sale to be honored, but says it was worth a try.

Amazon isn't the first E-business to face this problem. In March, a glitch on Travelocity.com L.P.'s site let customers book free rooms at a Hilton hotel in Mexico City. Hilton decided not to honor the rate, but offered each affected customer one free night at the hotel as an "act of goodwill." And for about an hour Jan. 31, a computer error let 143 people buy fantastically discounted tickets for international travel through United Airlines Inc.'s Web site. United canceled the tickets, but after customer outcry, it agreed to honor the sales. "Although we had a very solid legal footing, we decided not to make that a point of contention," says a spokesman for United. "We just listened to our customers."

No matter what Amazon decides to do, Williams figures he's already won. "When an online company makes a mistake, if you complain enough you usually get a free gift certificate or something to satisfy you," he says. "You can't really lose."

If you have any comments about this article please email the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com.

We'll be most interested in the following:

• In your view what is required to improve a nation's economy at the beginning of the 21st century? Can small to medium size businesses help this process and create a major change for an entire nation, or even humanity on a global basis? What specific areas should one focus on during this process? In relationship to this, what are the most important aspects in the list below:
  • infrastructure development, better road system, and less polution from cars (since email and other eTransactions can replace many postal and other services), more airports,
  • faster and lower cost broadband Internet,
  • more schools with plenty of eLearning tools and fast Internet access, well educated and enumerated teachers and university professors who are committed to a global, eCommerce economy,
  • better education of modern subjects so that students come out of schools and universities with an eTransition ready focus, and plenty of theoretical and practical skills,
  • new office space, small business incubators, data hotels in which large corporations host eCommerce and eTransition resources for small startups, research parks with incubators, university and large business support,
  • health reform to improve a nation's helth by working more effectively and therefore having more time for recreational and health oriented activities,
  • and others.
• Do you think that eCommerce, B2B and D2D (business to business and developer to developer) collaboration over the Internet is important? Do you think that small businesses should have an eCommerce enabled website and sell directly to a global marketplace?
• How should they let the world known that they exsisted? In other words, how should they market their web-pages?
• Do you think that Internet eCommerce, web-site design etc. should be taught at high school and at an advanced level in colleges and universities?
• Would you/ could you set up your own eBusiness over the web? If not, why not? What are the main obstacles? How would you overcome the main obstacles?
• If you were in Government, how would you help individuals to set up their own small businesses? (e.g. tax breaks, simplified legal and setup process using 'premanufactured companies', government and private funding and development grants, competitions and publicity supported by the government and large businesses, venture capital and others).
• How would you help small businesses to innovate, improve and create intellectual as well as fiscal wealth and put their products on the web?
• How would you make large enterprises interested in supporting you as a small business? (e.g. by offering you supplier contracts in niche areas, risky R&D and others).
• Any other ideas that could help small businesses to innovate and grow (and then help an entire nation to grow, both intellectually as well as in fiscal terms)?

Knowing how to manage yourself means that you can manage your energy, in terms of your

• time,
• your emotional,
• mental and
• physical assets.

Rather than scheduling your time down to every 10 minutes of every day, think of your emotional, mental and physical assets first, because if you don't, you might as well say goodby to your productive, quality, and value added contributions to this world...

Many individuals worry too much about work, how to satisfy their management and their customers (both inside as well as outside customers). Many feel too much anger and frustration in many situations. This might start with a difficult commute, the email being down, the office is cold or warm, something smells bad, the boss is upset, and others. If you cannot overcome such issues they'll depete you before even opening your first productive meeting or computer screen of the day.

So, what are the solutions to this complex issue? Obviously as always, lifestyle, diet and exercise helps a lot to increase your positive energy. There is always something nice every day, and you should be able to find that in life.... Furthermore focusing on truly value added, quality activities that you enjoy and being rewarded for helps too. If you feel that despite your positive contributions and efforts you are still not respected look into your environment; they might not be right...the conclusion? ... yes, make a wise move!

Some further practical solutions:

• Organize time for breaks. A break is not necessarily a cigarette or a coffee break (these are actually very destructive activities), but a change of tasks or even pose in front of the screen or at a meeting is healthy. A brief exercise is truly great with a favourite fruit, plenty of water and fresh air... a short intensive walk? Exchanging jokes with your colleagues? Yes, if you have the opportunity, do it...
• Keep a log of what your main positive, creative, contributing and main energy depleting activities are. Analyse this log every week and perhaps with your boss, as the opportunity arises. Pro-actively search for positive, value added work that satisfies all parties, including you.
• Create a focus. a major task, a challenge for each day. Plan this focus activity on a weekly/ monthly basis. Leave some gap days for slips... for relaxation, and/ or for changes. If at all possible keep things flexible. Very strict planning increases stress.
• During every focus day first get rid of the most important tasks (i.e. panic attacks), then deal with a big chunk of value adding, quality work, and then sort out the rest before leaving. (Naturally, if you work from home, this is easier than as it is in the office, or factory... so try to work from home. Your productivity will multiply and your family will love it too!)
• This is the core solution: system analyse your activities, most importantly your losses. Find the "wholes on the bucket" and act; else you are knowingly depleting your energy! This can be done as follows:
  • Define the bounds of the activity under consideration (ie. the processes)
  • Identify all categories of loss (you are loosing time...and energy) and hazard for each type of loss. See what goes in, what comes out of every major process, and why?
  • Look at the objects that create all this behavior. Analyse their attributes too. (This is easier for systems than for humans...)
  • Assess the reasons why all this happens to your process(es) and then try to redesign your process(es).
• Plan your active energy saving plan by:
  • Tolerating the process and risks and proceed (in the short term, often you have to...)
  • Get out: the risk is too high, do not proceed, get out!
  • Get better: implement a re-engineered process plan and get everybody's approval. (Not easy but the best approach!)
  • Always note: assessment is vital before formulating an action plan.

Let us know what your experiences are. We'll be pleased to review and publish them! (Please email to the editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com)

1. Electrification

2. Automobile

3. Airplane

4. Water Supply and Distribution

5. Electronics

6. Radio and Television

7. Agricultural Mechanisation

8. Computers

9. Telephone

10. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration

11. Highways

12. Spacecraft

13. Internet

14. Imaging

15. Household Appliances

16. Health Technologies

17. Petroleum and Gas Technologies

18. Laser and Fiber Optics

19. Nuclear Technologies

20. High Performance Materials

(ADAM with IT's comment: Although many of the above entries interrelate (e.g. electricity is literally part of everything we do these days), the truly amazing thing about this list is that Computers became only 8th, and the Internet only the 13th, and most importantly Health Technologies only 16th...try to ask your dentist, next time you visit, to use 18th century tools on you, your accountant to work out everything without computers and your children to complete their homework without using the Internet... Enjoy!)

Jump to top

According to a USA study, the following approximate percent of manufacturers are planning to relocate for the following reasons:

• 60 percent to find skilled labor, or the proximity of customers, or the local quality of life, or the proximity of a highway and good transportation,
• 50 percent, the availability of non-union labor,
• 45 percent, lower labor cost, being close to key suppliers and to the source of raw materials,
• 40 percent, energy cost, lower state and local taxes and just-in-time (JIT) delivery requirements.

Jump to top

Jump to top

At the recent IEE (The Institution of Electrical Engineers) Annual Dinner in London, UK, IEE President, Dr. John Taylor in his forward looking speech was talking about the need to prepare for the knowledge-driven economy, success in which depends on how well one exploits some of our most valuable assets, including knowledge, science and engineering, our skills and innovative ideas.

He said, "The first industrial revolution was based primarily on investment in plant, machinery and equipment. The knowledge-based revolution we are now living through is based on investment in human capital - in training, education and learning - and that is a very important message that we need to get over to people..."

Furthermore, he added that "it is vital that we focus on high value added businesses here in the UK. I believe the information age and the knowledge - driven economy go hand in hand." He also emphasized that information technology is hugely important for the UK, its economy, its prosperity and to its society and quality of life. "It is at the heart of the knowledge-based, high value adding economy. The core ITC supply sector in the UK is over 100 billion Pound Sterling (approximately 165 billion US Dollars). Within this, the electronics sub-sector alone is three times bigger than either aerospace or pharmaceuticals....The computing and software services industries in the UK employ over a million people which is more than the coal industry did at its peak."

The President highlighted the need to be aware of the social implications the knowledge -driven society will bring by stating: "We must not create two societies, one of which can participate in the information age and one one of which cannot... We have to understand that any technology can be and usually will be used for good and for ill... It is vital that we develop better ways of helping the rest of the community to play their part in deciding, which applications are acceptable and which are not."

(The Editor: for more please tune into http://www.iee.org.uk)

Jump to top

Jump to top

Living near New York as well as working with a network of professionals worldwide gives us the opportunity to "breathe in" various financial news and trends that are important to be aware of... let us share them with you!

The turning point in low growth is expected by several analysts to reach us by late 1999 for most middle-of-the road series, including industrial production and GDP. Analysts are forecasting a low of 2.3-2.5 percent for December 1999 for industrial production. For durable goods manufacturing orders -1.0 percent in in December 1999.

Based on past periods, analysts are predicting the next major growth curve high for the fourth quarter of 2001 at around 4.0 percent of industrial production and 3.5 percent for GDP.

In the USA, in 1998 the manufacturing industry led the capital goods expenditure by having spent over 190 billion USA Dollars, or close to 30 percent of total expenditures by all businesses with five or more employees. Of this total amount approximately 38 billion was spent on structures and 153 billion on equipment.

The "big spenders" were the automotive industry and their suppliers, including steel works, and among nondurable goods the chemical industry (excluding drugs), the food industry and the tobacco industry.

The growing service industry in the USA has accounted for over 140 billion Dollars of expenditure, or approximately 22 percent of the total expenditure by businesses with five or more employees. Of this amount approximately 50 billion was spent on structures and over 90 billion on equipment, including computers.

The leaders in expenditure were the automotive industries, their suppliers, hospitals, hotels and their suppliers.

If you have any comments and/or suggestions please email to the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com

Jump to top

According to Sun Microsystems, Inc. in 1990 there were only 93 business registrations over the internet... in 1999 there are almost 100 million computers on the web... and even more interesting: by 2001 over 270 million computers will be connected to the internet worldwide...

In 1998 in the USA the communication sector invested over 57 billion USA Dollars, of which virtually all was spent on new structures and equipment. In comparison to 1995 this represents a close to 24 percent increase!

The "big spenders" in this industry are the Internet related hardware and software services, including the telephone and other communications services, radio, television broadcasting and mobile communications.

In terms of the Internet, Internet2 sets new standards and promises faster communication for all of us. Please find below their mission statement with the contact email for further information.

The Internet2 Mission Statement:

"Facilitate and coordinate the development, deployment, operation and technology transfer of advanced, network-based applications and network services to further US leadership in research and higher education and accelerate the availability of new services and applications on the Internet".

The Internet2 goals can be summarized as follows:

• Enable a new generation of applications to run on the web
• Recreate a leading edge research and education network capability worldwide
• Transfer new capabilities to the global production Internet

Some specific objectives are as follows:

• Demonstrate new applications that can dramatically enhance researchers' ability to collaborate and conduct experiments over the net
• Demonstrate enhanced delivery of education and other services (e.g. health care, environmental monitoring and others) by taking advantage of "virtual proximity" created by an advanced communications infrastructure (e.g. a live camera in the "middle of the Pacific Ocean" viewed and data analyzed real-time by thousands of science students)
• Support the development and the adoption of advanced applications by providing appropriate development tools
• Facilitate development, deployment, and operation of an affordable communications infrastructure, capable of supporting differentiated Quality of Service (QoS) based on applications requirements of the research and education community
• Promote experimentation with the next generation of communications technologies
• Coordinate adoption of agreed working standards and common practices among participating institutions to ensure end-to-end quality of service and interoperability
• Catalyze partnerships with governmental and private sector organizations
• Encourage transfer of technology from Internet2 to the rest of the Internet, and
• Study the impact of the new infrastructure, the new services and applications in higher education and over the Internet community in general.
• Support and enable "green", environmentally friendly developments since e-commerce and shopping on-line saves fuel and preserves forests. (According to Time, April-May 2000, p. 82. Chris Taylor: "If you demand overnight shipping on those books, it will take six times the amount of fuel to get them to you as would normal delivery, thanks to jet fuel costs.... environmental groups welcome the Net's energy efficiency...").

Internet2 is a project of the University Corporation for Advanced Internet Development. Please send questions or comments about this project to webmgr@ucaid.edu

According to MarketFacts, the reason why people are on-line is as follows:

• Collecting information: 87.8%;
• E-mail: 83.2%;
• Research: 80.5%;
• Surfing: 75.3%;
• Play Games: 33.7%;
• Chat : 30.8%;
• Post to Bulletins: 30.0%;
• Shop:17.8%

European mobile (wireless) Internet use...

A European survey by Excite and Nokia revealed (May 2000) that mobile Internet use in Europe will develop significantly faster than in the USA between 2000 and 2002, nevertheless the USA will catch up around 2003. The reason for this is that Europe has standardized bandwidth and a very large mobile phone base in comparison to the USA. The survey reveiled, that Europeans will execute various transactions using their mobile (i.e. wireless) phone/ Internet connections, versus just looking and researching web-sites, as expected earlier.

English is Not your Language? NO problem!

The Enterprise Translation Server allows everyone in a global network, such as the Internet, to communicate in their own native language, because it can

• Instantly translate e-mail, letters, memos and other documents,
• Provide real-time translation between English and other languages for instant messaging and discussion tools, and
• Deliver on-demant multilingual capabilities to intranets or Internet web-sites.

The system offers automated translation services between English, French, German, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese. (For more click on http://www.TransparentLanguage.com/ets).

If you have any comments and/or suggestions please email to the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com

Jump to top

The Technology Foresight Programme in the UK aims to identify the most promising strategic directions for UK industry. Note, that the reasoning and the conclusions in this report are wise and true for many other countries and industries too.

There is an excellent article by David Grant in the IEE Manufacturing Engineer, October 1998 issue, pages 237 to 241, by the Institution of Electrical Engineers, incorporating the Institution of Manufacturing Engineers, Michael Faraday House, Six Hills Way, Stevenage, Herts, SG1 2AY, United Kingdom. The website is: http://www.iee.org.uk

Below is a short summary with some extended thoughts of this report:

According to the Forsight Panel the major opportunities for gaining competitive advantage will have their roots in one or more of the following major changes in the way we design and manufacture goods in the future:

1. Internationalization: overseas markets and enterprises will have a major influence on everything we do

2. The continuously changing customer requirements and sales and service networks will have a major effect on all of us

3. Competitiveness through agility, focus and partnerships will be key

4. The importance of people skills, motivation, leadership skills, teamwork, learning skills, knowledge and innovation cannot be underestimated in our internet-linked world, in which one can invent and create product and/or service at his or her desk and sell it "anywhere and anytime" in the world!

5. The responsiveness to environmental concerns and regulation that has gained strong ground in Europe is spreading to the rest of the world, creating new businesses, and simultaneously putting pressure on some existing, polluting industries

6. The influence of information technology and communications will be very significant, most importantly the Internet and related opportunities, such as the "anything, anywhere, anytime" concepts, e-commerce for products, services and even banking, distance and on-line education, and many others.

If you have any comments and/or suggestions please email to the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com

Jump to top

The software industry is changing its rules in a radical fashion.

The "anything, anywhere, anytime" challenge of the internet is driving an estimated 10 million developers and researchers to make the internet better, faster, safer and even more easier to use. The market therefore is expanding. Expect babies to get a web address and an email address as they were born, and everybody, including grandma to send live digital images from one continent to the other to celebrate a birthday party!

Frightening? No. After all we, R&D engineers always wanted this sort of world... didn't we? Even if the transition is not always smooth.... and is a never ending process... good for jobs and hopefully will make the world a better place to live for all of us, including us, nature and the environment, which is the ultimate goal!

As an executive summary of what is likely to happen in the software industry in 1999 and beyond, expect the following:

• E-commerce, or electronic commerce, in particular businesses to business trade in 1999/2000 will create more profits than their traditional retail counterparts. This will fuel the development of related hardware and software, in particular web-oriented authoring, graphics, database, expert systems, system analysis and system design, modeling and simulation, multimedia and others. Furthermore special areas, such as network simulation, internet service provider load balancing and scheduling packages, security, safety programs will develop even further.
• More smart-agents will appear on the web to help on-line shoppers to find their choices by sitting at home in front of their internet computers. On-line shopping will not be limited to hardware and software goods. Digitally accessible groceries, food stores, banks, insurance companies, travel agencies and services, community services, maintenance services (for devices that can be at least partially remotely maintained, such as a cable system modem, or a CNC controller), and others will become even more widespread. (NSF has launched a major initiative in researching the "digital government", so expect a lot of new ideas here...)
• Software developments will replace several middle-management and traditional distributor jobs by linking together the manufacturer/ developer directly with the customer over the internet. This will create some unemployment, but in other areas of the economy, most importantly in internet-related businesses, marketing, new product development, engineering and science, management, education and customer services it will increase the opportunities for well educated, dedicated employees and entrepreneurs.
• Although education and related software developments as such will not be emphasized in the traditional form as a major new market, the need for quality education in an asynchronous fashion will increase and virtual universities and related on-line educational services will thrive. These distributed organizations will have significantly lower overheads than that of the traditional universities, therefore they'll be able to provide lower cost education to a much wider population. Furthermore the "anything, anywhere, anytime" concept will reach universities in a big way too, meaning that the rigid academic structure of the term, or semester will gradually disappear and the on-line, on-demand option will gradually increase its market share, with professors and support staff working on a time-share basis. The major challenge for the educational system will be to maintain quality and to carry on building communities in this competitive digital world. This will emerge first at continuing professional development, then at graduate and postgraduate levels and then spread to some areas of undergraduate education too.
• Java will take off as the cross-platform alternative and new (more) fail-safe (eventually robust ?) operating systems will emerge, such as more Linux and Apple's OS X on significantly faster computers (meaning over 1000 MHz plus). Typical Java applications will further develop in areas such as:
  • Java speech recognition via the Speech API (JSAPI) that defines a standard interface to speech recognition and synthesis
  • XML in the Java platform. (XML is becoming the universal data exchange format)
  • Smart-card industry with Java applications in computers with less than 64 kilobytes of memory)
  • Garbage collection and memory management within the Java platform
  • Generic Java based tuning and technology -based performance boosting within the CORBA framework. (This is a non-proprietary framework that supports load-distribution in a server cluster environment to increase service stability).
  • Java for building enterprise portals, a new delivery mechanism of information and services for companies that are reinventing themselves over the internet. (The core technology here is enterprise JavaBeans (EJB) component architecture that supports resuable component development).
  • Middleware Java technology providing e-commerce platforms and enabling tools, including Microsoft and Java interoperatibility issues.
  • Java FactorySM services for improving development training and application development needs.
  • Rapid e-commerce development with Java, including billing, account management, customer care, security services, exception handling, user management, directory services, messaging and transaction processing, and EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) between enterprises and customers.
  • Multi-tear database development within the Java platform.
  • Using the Unified Modelling Language to develop Java applications.
  • Dynamic scripting with in the Java platform with JPython for rapid application development
• Software veterans and giants will take alternative challenges to compensate for their sliding market share, in particular moving towards embedded systems (e.g. internet browsers in mobile telephones, home-security systems, mobile automotive communication systems, intelligent traffic sensory-based systems, and others)
• New hardware architectures, in particular the RISC and CISC chips (Complex Instruction Set Computing) will reach their limits and new hardware architectures and technologies (such as IBM's copper-based chip technology already showing strength) will emerge
• The millennium bug, the Y2K challenge will be a problem to some, whilst many others will cash in and earn significant amounts for fixing problems that shouldn't have been programmed at the first place...
• On-line game networks with multiple and remote players will enlighten homes as well as the industry. Software versus cartridges will spread even if this is interpreted as a loss to many cartridge-based game developers
• New life will be injected into the movie and entertainment industry in that on-line internet based movies (by relatively unknown, or entirely new artists) will surface and sell for the fraction of current offerings, and many for free! This will allow new talent to emerge, as well as from a software point of view fuel new digital editing, capturing and processing software developments on a wide basis. (In other words professionals as well as students and grandma will attempt to produce digital videos, talking picture sequences and alike...)
• Software stocks will go up and down, but fundamentally stay strong as the entire world is growing into the digital age, "all" driven by software and able people who understand not just the software but the related fields too!
• New technologies such as XML will take over the current HTML standard on the web. (XML stands for eXtensible Markup Language and HTML for Hypertext Markup Language, the current web-page format). The significance in XML is that it allows programmable tags, meaning that it enables publishers to create one digital source format and then publish it anywhere exactly in the authored format. Furthermore the major benefits of XML will be felt by everyone using interactive forms on the web. Users will get faster response, since the form contents will be processed on the spot by the user's machine, rather than at the server (ISP, or Internet Service Provider), as it is the case now. This will furthermore speed up the web, since the ISP load will decrease; not to mention the software business opportunities that new interactive multimedia supported form developments will create
• New areas of software opportunities relating to customer service and marketing intelligence will emerge and/or further develop in areas such as computer telephony, unified messaging, switchboard services, market analysis, customer feedback data processing, maintenance and related feedback loops to design, manufacturing and quality aspects.

If you have any comments and/or suggestions please email to the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com

What is the challenge?

Traditionally, despite the fact that most people on Mother Earth have expected year 2000 to arrive, software applications have been written with two digit year fields, instead of the more logical four digit year fields.

What is the consequence?

If you tried to use applications after the millennium without any changes the software will sort the date as follows: 00, 01, 98, 99, meaning that any record created in year 2000 will be put in the wrong collating sequence, i.e. 2000, 2001, 1998, 1999. Obviously what we all want is to carry on as usual with 1998, then 1999, then 2000 and 2001 and so on. (This is called the year 2000 compliant sequence).

How to fix this problem?

The suggested steps are as follows:

• Survey your problem area
• Plan your actions
• Implement the changes and then test and validate what you have achieved, and then
• set cleanup and maintenance procedures in place.

The survey process can be time consuming or relatively simple, depending on how well you understand your current environment. Try to look at your potential problem areas by following a

• "top down" approach by system, then by
• type (e.g. standalone applications, database related applications, etc.) and then by
• function (e.g. human resources, marketing, service, inventory, design, etc.)

As an outcome of this surveying process you need to have a clear picture of what needs to be changed/ done!

During the planning process you have to understand the scope of your year 2000 problem. Depending on the severeness of the problem you might have to reschedule several new developments, recruit consultants, ally your company with other more experienced companies, re-assign major jobs, etc. This can be serious, do not underestimate this!

As an outcome of this process you need to appoint a solid management team to take care of the Y2K issue!

Implement the changes by dividing the project into manageable chunks following an effective strategy as follows:

• List the applications in each system, job type or functional area
• Decide which one of them are effected
• Change the affected applications to become Y2K compliant (as above)
• Test your changes (this will take an estimated 40 to 80 percent of the entire time you spend on all of the above listed processes!)
• Put back the changed applications into production

The outcome of this process should be working code.

The occasional additional challenge here is that often new bugs are introduced as the appetite grows for not just Y2K but other long awaited changes too. Be conservative and focus on what MUST be done first!

Also note, that there are software packages that can automatically read and change source code, most notably COBOL, to become year 2000 compliant. Most importantly test any such software before you let it "chew up" your software assets!

The cleanup and maintenance procedure should start with the proper documentation of the changes, then carry on by eliminating any applications that duplicate work or are obsolete, and then by making plans for future improvements.

Finally, you'll need staff even in and after 2000 to cope with problems that haven't been anticipated... so don't book your 2 months long holiday to the remote islands of the Bahamas yet...

Important test dates

Since "9999" is a popular end-of-file marker, its presence as non-standard data in date fields is a very common Y2K problem. In order to help to resolve Y2K problems, let us list some critical test dates:

• April 9, 1999 (because your computer could interpret it as "09999")
• September 9, 1999 ("090999")
• DECEMBER 31, 1999 (LAST DAY OF Y1999!)
• January 1, 2000 (FIRST DAY OF Y2000!)
• January 2, 2000 (the last day of the initial millennium span)
• January 3, 2000 (the first BUSINESS DAY of the new millennium)
• January 10, 2000 (the first date to require a seven digit date field)
• January 31, 2000 (end of the first month of year 2000)
• February 28, 2000 (this is the first day for testing the Y2K leap year)
• February 29, 2000 (this is the second day for testing the Y2K leap year)
• March 1, 2000 (this is the last day for testing the Y2K leap year)
• April 1, 2000 (the second quarter of the new millennium begins)
• July 1, 2000 (for many organizations the first fiscal year of the 21st century, the third quarter of 2000)
• October 1, 2000 (the millennium's fourth quarter begins)
• October 10, 2000 (the first date to require an 8 digit date field)
• December 31, 2000 (end of the first 366 day long millennium year!)
• January 1, 2001 (the first day of the second year in the twenty-first century)
• September 8, 2001 (999,999,999 on UNIX systems)
• December 31, 2001 (end of the first 365 day long year in the 21st century)

As an example, according to http://www.informationweek.com more than 90% of the US federal government's 6,399 most important systems should be year 2000-compliant by March 31, the goal set for all federal agencies, according to the Office of Management and Budget.

The projection was made in March 1999 with the release of the government's eighth quarterly report on year 2000 progress among federal agencies. Only 79% of the key systems were compliant as of Feb. 12, when agencies filed their reports to the Office of Management and Budget, part of the Executive Office of the President. The agencies reported 61% compliance in the prior quarter.

Five agencies, including Social Security and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, reported 100% compliance. Three agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Transportation, were classified as making inadequate progress. For example, only 53% of the mission-critical systems at the DOT were reported compliant.

(Psst... MACs never had a Y2K problem...)

If you have any comments and/or suggestions please email to the Editor: cimware@cimwareukandusa.com

Jump to top

Due to rising business travel expenses as well as the increasing influence of the internet as an information provider and cyberspace trade show opportunity, trade show attendence levels are dropping in the USA, as well as elsewhere. The quality of attendence on the other hand is increasing. These are those engineers and managers who are pushed on due dates thus are keen to put their hands on the real thing and take a decision on the spot or very soon after the show.

Please find some advice on strategies that can maximize your trade show success; many of them applicable not just to the physical, but to the cyberspace, virtual trade show aspects too:

• Create a simple factsheet that explains the value added, new and novel features of your product that satisfies needs. Don't forget to mention your email and web-address on these sheets because this will guide the potential customer to a more detailed explanation and optionally a virtual demo of your product over the internet. (Keep in mind the popular line in New York that newborn babies first will get a web-address and an email address, and only then a social security number...)
• Increase your pre-show promotional activities by mailing in the post as well as over email invitations for registering and FREE attendance. Notably in the US approximately 1/3rd of the attendees are influenced by such pre-show mailings. (Keep in mind that even if potential customers don't turn up at the show you will still have valuable electronically stored data that can be used for further marketing, follow-ups, contacts, etc.)
• In your registration process ask for more than one contact name and address (including email and web-addresses!). This will give you a wider opportunity to invite, contact and build communities even if the group is within the same company. Furthermore, through the web-addresses you'll be able to learn more about your potential customers' needs, so you can satisfy such needs better!
• At the show, create a warm, friendly atmosphere where "community building" and "bonding" between sellers and buyers can take place. Don't forget that this is something the internet still cannot do well, so you have an opportunity to recover your trade show expenses! Create a flexible booth layout, a side-by-side discussion area with small round tables where barriers are easier to be removed and where people can sit down, feel comfortable and openly discuss pros and cons. (Note, that you typically have max. 10 seconds to grab your potential customers' attention at the exhibit and then maybe around 1 to 2 minutes for a sales representative to actually start a discussion with a potential customer. (Notably in the US only 10-15 percent of your visitors will wait up-to 3 minutes for a salesrep to make contact.)
• Strive for a win-win result. As they say: "A half a loaf is better than none." People who believe that in order for them to win the other side has to loose are loosers themselves.The key concept is to go into a meaningful discussion and negotiation with a clear goal in mind, but to accept the best deal one can get... It is poor strategy not to have a "Plan B" and even a "Plan C" in which alternative pros and cons are simulated and worked out as accurately as possible before the meeting, based on information available.
• Don't expect to close a deal at your very first sales meeting. According to the Harward Business Review persuasion is a process, not an event. Persuasion involves listening to people, testing their position, developing a new position, or even a new strategy after having collected accurate data from the group and then trying again, maybe from new angles... always keeping in mind that you will only sell if you can satisfy customer needs! Effective persuasion is not an exact science, but rather a craft that must be polished through trial and error and lots of practice in communication and listening skills... and as always don't miss the opportunity to learn from your successful colleagues, friends or even competitors. (The web is a great learnning source!)
• Don't be very formal; dress professionally but casually. The shirt with the embroided company logo is great and gives a feeling of family unity and team approach.
• Be alert towards the end of the day. The best customers will be late! Treat them well; after all everybody gets exhausted at trade shows.
• The web has a major purchasing influence on all of us! Increasingly your potential customers will visit your website before as well as after the show. This experience will influence their decisions. It is likely that they will discuss what they have seen with several other colleagues. So make your website simple and fast and make sure that it is communicating exactly the messages that they want to hear! (Websites offering only 40-50 percent useful space within the complex, slow and unnecessary frame-structure that print-media oriented graphic designers have created for them, with over-crowded pop-up screens that often don't work due to slow download times, or out-of date computers at the viewers' end, and banner animations that have nothing to do with your message will make it impossible for them to enjoy your product demo and will turn away your potential customers for good.)
• In the furture trade shows are going to win over the internet only if they provide a meaningful, enjoyable show where professionals offer truly value added services over the interactive, electronic internet-based screens... so let your imagination go and invent new ideas that fit this new paradigm!... else there is no point spending travel dollars when you can do it all at your desk over email and the web...

Jump to top

Jump to top